If things unfold as I think they will unfold, we will have been witness to one of the greatest political triumphs of all time. I knew the President was a smart guy, but if he pulls off what I think he is trying to pull off, I will graduate him to super genius status.
There are three major issues burning right now: Gun Control, Taxes on the Rich, and Federal Spending. The President is for greater gun control, heavy taxes on the rich (read everybody), and higher federal spending. He has a split congress to work with. The Senate is split 53/45 with the majority being Democrats. The House is split 233/200 with the majority being Republican.
The president is moving forward this week with his Executive Orders on gun control. He does have some orders that he can make in this regard. He can not out and out ban guns, call for confiscation, or anything like that. He has to work inside the laws, and the agencies that were set up by congress. The President does not have the authority to unilaterally decree something that is not already codified in law. Harry Truman tried to do that by nationalizing the Steel mills back during the Korean War and was smacked down by the Supreme Court (Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer).
For real gun control to happen, the President will need to have legislation pass. It seems as if this is impossible, because the Republicans own the house. They surely will not pass any gun control legislation, thus alienating their base. Would they?
Here is how I think things will go down. The President has this $250K number in his head about who he wants to tax in to the ground. He also wants much higher rates on the Capital Gains tax. Normally Republicans would fight such a tax hike. BUT, what would alienate the Republican base more? Tax hikes, or gun control? My feeling is that the Republican base will bitch about tax hikes, but will outright rebel if strict gun control is enacted.
The President will do as much as he can with gun control via executive order, maybe a little farther, and just worry about the courts later. He will then propose his deal... If the Republicans raise the debt ceiling, and raise taxes on those making $300K or so, he will only propose modest gun control measures, keeping "assault weapons" legal, but getting rid of magazines that carry more than 10 rounds.
This gives the President virtually everything he has wanted. It will allow the Republicans to say to the base that they saved the guns! It will allow the Democrats to say they raised the taxes. Everybody wins... Except Liberty...
It is a master stroke, because the President can't loose here. He can play the two big Republican hot buttons off one another. Only the complete nutters like Rand Paul will stick to their principals and just vote NO to both measures, and there aren't enough people in congress that will stand up for Liberty not to let something like this happen.
We will see both pieces of legislation happen just as the debt ceiling is a about to cause a Government Shutdown. I used to think that any type of Gun legislation wouldn't be able to pass the House, but having gun control pressed forward against the debt ceiling is simply a stroke of genius.
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