The UFC brings its show to Omaha Nebraska for the first time. It also has the strangest headliner in a very long time...
Dan Miller Vs. Rob Kimmons (Middleweight)
Miller is an IFL vet with a lot of submissions to his name. This is his first fight in the UFC.
Kimmons is the first of many VFC vets on this UFC show. He once fought for, and lost, a VFC title fight to Ryan Jensen, who is also on this card. Kimmons has a good right hand, and is a tough guy, but his ground and cardio is suspect. Rob does have the advantage of fighting, and winning in the UFC.
I think that Rob will have his hands full with Dan Miller. Miller seems to have the better ground game, and I suspect that he will be in better shape than Rob. Miller by kneebar first round.
Drew McFedries Vs. Mike Massenzio (Middleweight)
Drew is back after beating Mavin Eastman at the last TUF final. Drew has been on again off again in the UFC, and has not yet been able to find a rhythm. Each fight he seems to be a different person.
Massenzio is an IFL vet, who lost his last fight via kneebar. Fortunately for Mike, Drew is not really known as a ground guy.
I think that this will be a relatively easy fight for Drew. He should be on the road back after his impressive KO victory over Eastman, but if the Drew who lost to Patrick Cote and Martin Kampmann shows up, things might be different.
I think Drew McFedries breaks his win one loose one streak by winning by KO in the second round.
Jason Brilz Vs. Brad Morris (Light Heavyweight)
Jason Brilz is finally in the UFC!!! Jason turned down a spot on the original TUF season to concentrate on his career. He had just had a baby and just stared a new job. MMA was not paying the bills, and no one could have known how the show would have taken off. But he is there now!! Brilz is an excellent wrestler and has improved his stand up to be very effective. His cardo is good and he easily mauls me.
Morris lost in his UFC debut to Cain Velasquez vai KO. Morris is a Japanese JJ practitioner, and has some wins via KO and submission.
Did you really think you were going to get honest reporting from me on my friend and training partner? Come on. Brilz is Barack Obama and I am NBC. Brilzy by G&P KO first round.
Joe Lauzon Vs. Kyle Bradley (Lightweight)
Lauzon is coming off of a tough loss to Kenny Florian. Joe is a slick ground guy and and overall scrappy fighter.
Kyle lost his debut to Chris Lytle back in February, and has not fought since... typical move by the UFC.
Lauzon wins this one by some kind of a leg lock, most likely a heel hook second round.
Wilson Gouveia Vs. Ryan Jensen (Middleweight)
Wilson was surprised by Goran Reljic's power in his last fight and got caught. Wilson thought that he was too small for the 205 lb weight class, and moved to 185. He was scheduled to fight Omaha native Jeremy Horn, but an injury forced Jeremy to withdrawal.
Wilson is a BJJ black belt, and trains at the best MMA gym in the country, ATT.
Ryan has not had good luck in the UFC loosing the two of his fights against guys who are now tearing up the 185 lb division, Thales Leites and Demian Maia. Ryan has rededicated himself to MMA and is focused on winning this fight. He looked super sharp against me the last time I went toe to toe with him, hitting me with right hands and even knocking me completely off of my feet with a deep monster leg kick.
I think that if Ryan keeps his focus, and keeps this fight on the feet where he seems to have an advantage. I think if Ryan gets on his back he may be in for a long night. BUT Ryan will keep the fight standing up and will catch Wilson with a monster right hand left hook combo that he has so often dropped me with and will get the first win of his UFC career! Jensen by KO second round.
Alessio Sakara Vs. Joe Vedepo (Middleweight)
Sakara felt that 205 was too tough for him, so he dropped a weight class and was promptly knocked out by Chris Lebin at 185. This proves that a hole in your technique is not solved with a move in weight class. Sakara's strength is his sharp boxing, but his weakness is a glass chin.
Vedepo makes his debut in the UFC after fighting... nobody. He seems to be a ground guy with most of his wins coming by submission. He is from Iowa City, and was a stand out in High School wrestling.
This feels like the UFC is doing a favor for Sakara's gym ATT by feeding him a cupcake. I am sure that Joe is tough, but I have a feeling that his game will be transparent. Sakara will stuff Joe's takedowns and will knock him out standing. Sakara by KO first round.
Houston Alexander Vs. Eric Schafer (Light Heavyweight)
Houston hits people very hard. Houston has no ground game, nor is he working on getting one.
Eric is a BJJ stand out with slick submissions and good takedowns.
Eric by armbar first round.
Ed Herman Vs. Alan Belcher (Middleweight)
Ed was back in the swing of things by winning three straight, then ran in to the seemingly unstoppable Demian Maia. Ed was in trouble throughout most of the fight, running away from sub after sub.
Alan Belcher also lost his last UFC attemept getting knocked out by Jason Day back in April.
Belcher is known mainly as a guy with heavy hands. I think that Ed can weather the storm of the initial two rounds and take a submission win in the third. Herman by RNC third round.
Clay Guida Vs. Mac Danzig (Lightweight)
Clay knocked out his cream puff of an opponent at UFN 13 to bounce back from his RNC loss to Roger Huerta. Clay keeps going and going fighting at 100 mph for all three rounds. I have never seen him get tired. After his fights he looks like he could go for another 3 rounds.
Mac was the immovable object in his TUF season steamrolling everybody in his path. He then went on to win one move fight over Mark Bocek as his first non TUF fight.
This will be a very entertaining fight. You have Clay the hyper monkey man vs Mac the composed ass kicker. It will eventually end when Mac finally gets the monkey man down and smashes him. Mac by G&P KO second round.
Nate Diaz Vs. Josh Neer (Lightweight)
Nate is 4-0 in the UFC! Nate has a slick ground game and the Diaz never say die moto.
Josh Neer won his last fight in the UFC by decisioning Din Thomas. His last fight before that in the UFC was a loss to Nate's brother Nick. Josh has a good ground game, highlighted by a slick triangle from the bottom that he seems to get everybody in.
Honestly... I like Josh Neer. I have met and talked with him several times at various events. He is a nice guy. He has no chance. Nate is at a different level fighting different level opponents. This is the biggest miss match in years to headline a UFC event... Nate should be fighting a Hermies Franca or Sean Sherk, not Josh Neer. Nate will beat up Josh standing, definitely opening up one of Josh's many scars. After that Nate will take Josh down and either finish him by G&P or Submission.
Diaz by RNC late second round.